A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
